Most Discounts Aren't Events — They're Defaults

Footwear: 63% of products are on sale. Not during Black Friday. Not during a clearance. Right now.

December 18, 2025 · 3 min read · Data from Project Blueprint (154,000+ products, 160 brands)

We track 154,000 products across 160 Shopify DTC brands. Not samples. Not screenshots. Real data, updated weekly.

And when we looked at which products are "on sale" — meaning price is below compare-at price — the numbers weren't what we expected.

What people think: Sales are rare events. What data shows: Sales are the default state.

The Pattern

Across the dataset, 23% of all products are currently marked as discounted. That's not a Black Friday snapshot. That's a normal Wednesday.

But the interesting part isn't the average. It's the variance. Some categories hover at 2-3%. Others sit permanently above 40%. The "sale" isn't a promotion — it's a pricing strategy.

Sale rate by category showing Footwear at 63% and Home at 3%

What This Means

Footwear at 63% isn't a clearance event. It's a structural reality. Brands in this category have trained customers to expect discounts. The "compare at" price exists primarily to create a strikethrough.

Home goods at 2.9% tells a different story. Higher consideration purchases, longer decision cycles. Customers research. Fake MSRPs are riskier when people actually check.

Week 1-6: same price, always On Sale. MSRP, allegedly.

Next Drop

This is part of an ongoing series analyzing pricing behavior across DTC. Coming next: which specific brands never blink on price — the ones with actual pricing power. Not everyone's playing the same game.

Data Source

This analysis uses data from the Project Blueprint Dataset. Full query output available at reports/blog_inputs/pricing_behavior_snapshot.md

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